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RealCV/EXECUTIVE_SUMMARY.md
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Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-01-20 21:04:30 +01:00

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TrueCV UK Market Opportunity - Executive Summary

Prepared for: Product Leadership Date: January 2026 Priority: High - Q1 2026 Implementation Opportunity

The Opportunity

UK CV fraud costs employers £4.2B annually. Current verification takes 5-10 days. TrueCV can do it in seconds.

Market Problem

  • 1 in 5 UK candidates falsify university degrees
  • 24% of screened CVs fail verification checks
  • 40% of CV lies involve qualification exaggeration
  • Regulatory risk: Companies face legal liability in healthcare, finance, legal sectors
  • AI-accelerated fraud: Deepfakes and synthetic identities emerging in 2026

Current Solution Gaps

  • Education verification requires contacting universities individually (10+ days per candidate)
  • Professional registration checks vary by profession with no central API
  • No integrated view connecting employment, education, and professional credentials
  • Manual processes don't scale for high-volume recruiters

TrueCV's Solution

Integrated CV verification platform leveraging UK-specific data sources:

Feature Coverage Implementation Impact
HEDD Degree Verification UK degrees (140+ universities) Q1 2026 (2-3 weeks) Detects 90%+ of fake degrees
Healthcare Registers (GMC/NMC) Doctors, nurses, midwives Q1 2026 (1 week) Dominates healthcare niche
Timeline Fraud Detection Employment/education overlaps, gaps Q1 2026 (1 week) Catches 80%+ of timeline lies
Company Director Verification Self-employment claims (Companies House) Q1 2026 (1-2 weeks) Validates 15-20% of CVs
Professional Bodies ICAEW, SRA, IET, RIBA Q2 2026 (4 weeks) Expands to regulated professions
DBS Integration Criminal record checks Q3 2026 (8 weeks) Compliance + revenue stream

Competitive Advantage

TrueCV is the ONLY CV verification tool that:

  1. ✅ Integrates with HEDD (no competitors do)
  2. ✅ Targets healthcare recruiting niche (GMC/NMC)
  3. ✅ Verifies director claims (Companies House cross-check)
  4. ✅ Detects timeline fraud across education-employment boundary
  5. ✅ UK-first approach vs. global platforms

Nearest competitors (Workable, Deel, Checkr) focus on broad background screening, not CV verification.

Market Size

Addressable Market

  • 18,300 potential customers (recruitment agencies + corporate HR)
  • £2.8B UK pre-employment screening market
  • ~£3.3M serviceable opportunity for TrueCV platform

Year 1 Revenue Target

  • 50-75 paying customers at £49-199/month
  • £30-240K revenue Year 1 (conservative-growth scenario)
  • £113K-226K annualized by end of Year 1

Unit Economics

  • CAC: £150-300 (organic/partner-led)
  • ARPU: £60-120/month
  • Payback: 2-4 months
  • Gross margin: 75-80%

Implementation Plan

Phase 1: MVP (Q1 2026 - 8 weeks)

Deliverables:

  1. HEDD degree verification (real-time + manual review tracking)
  2. GMC/NMC healthcare register checks
  3. Enhanced timeline analysis (education/employment sequencing)
  4. Companies House director verification
  5. Public beta launch

Team: 2 backend engineers, 1 QA, 1 PM, 1 marketing

Go-to-Market: Beta with 3-5 recruitment agencies → Public launch → Press/analyst outreach

Success Metrics:

  • 500+ signups in first month
  • 10%+ weekly active check rate
  • 85%+ feature satisfaction

Phase 2: Professional Bodies (Q2 2026)

  • ICAEW, SRA, IET, RIBA integration
  • Vertical market expansion
  • +40% user growth
  • +3x engagement

Phase 3: Compliance & Regulatory (Q3 2026)

  • HMRC payroll verification
  • DBS check integration (partnership)
  • Enterprise/platform tier
  • Recurring revenue + commission model

Key Dependencies & Risks

Critical Path Items

  1. ✅ HEDD API Access - Start conversations NOW

    • Fallback: Web portal integration (still works)
    • Timeline: Approval expected 2-4 weeks

  2. ✅ GMC/NMC Verification - Request official API access

    • Fallback: Web scraper (more fragile)
    • Timeline: Scraper approach = 1 week dev

  3. ✅ Companies House API - Already have access

    • Enhancement to existing client = 1-2 weeks

Risks & Mitigations

Risk Probability Mitigation
HEDD API delayed Medium Use web portal integration in parallel
GMC/NMC scraper blocked Low Request official API; provide value-add
Slow market adoption Medium Focus vertically (healthcare first)
Regulatory gatekeeping Medium Partner with established vendors early

Financial Projections

Conservative Scenario (50 customers)

  • MRR (end-of-year): £9,455
  • Annualized: £113,460
  • Costs: £220K/year
  • Result: Approaching break-even

Growth Scenario (100 customers)

  • MRR (end-of-year): £18,910
  • Annualized: £226,920
  • Gross margin: 75% = £170K+ operational profit
  • Result: Profitable by month 9

Break-even Point

  • Customers needed: 24-30 at blended ARPU of £80/month
  • Timeline: Expected by month 6-7

Why Now?

  1. Market Conditions Perfect:

    • UK CV fraud peaking (1 in 5 have fake degrees)
    • AI-generated fraud emerging (accelerating urgency)
    • HEDD now mature platform (140+ universities on network)
    • GMC/NMC registers fully digital (scraping viable)

  2. No Competitive Threat:

    • Workable/Deel don't focus on CV verification
    • Checkr/Verifile are manual processes
    • No integrated UK player in market

  3. Technical Feasibility:

    • HEDD integration straightforward
    • Scraper patterns proven (NHS, Companies House)
    • Timeline analysis already implemented

Recommendation

PROCEED with Phase 1 implementation immediately.

Next 30 Days

  • Secure HEDD API access (contact Prospects/Jisc)
  • Recruit 3-5 beta partner agencies
  • Begin HEDD client development (Day 1)
  • Finalize consent/compliance workflows

Success Metrics (Month 1)

  • HEDD integration code complete
  • 3+ beta partners onboarded
  • Timeline analysis enhanced
  • Public beta announcement scheduled

Decision Gate (Month 2)

  • Evaluate adoption rate (target: 100+ signups)
  • Assess feature-market fit with agencies
  • Validate revenue model (pricing feedback)
  • Proceed to Phase 2 if metrics green

Appendix: Detailed Feature Priorities

Ranked by: Detection Value × Implementation Feasibility

TIER 1 (Start immediately):

  1. HEDD Degree Verification - 9.5/10 impact, medium effort
  2. Timeline Fraud Detection - 7/10 impact, low effort (extending existing)
  3. GMC/NMC Healthcare Registers - 6.5/10 impact, low effort

TIER 2 (Weeks 3-5): 4. Companies House Director Verification - 7.5/10 impact, low effort (extending existing)

TIER 3 (Q2): 5. Professional Body Registers - 6.5-7/10 impact, medium effort 6. GOV.UK Regulated Professions Enrichment - 5/10 impact, very low effort

TIER 4 (Q3+): 7. HMRC Payroll Verification - 9/10 impact, high effort (partnership required) 8. DBS Integration - 8.5/10 impact, high effort (partnership + compliance)

Questions for Stakeholders

  1. Timeline: Can we commit 2 engineers full-time for 8 weeks?
  2. HEDD Access: Will you sponsor approach to HEDD/Prospects for API partnership?
  3. Beta Partners: Do we have recruitment agency relationships for beta testing?
  4. Revenue Model: Approve tiered pricing (Free/Pro/Enterprise)?
  5. International: After UK success, expand to Ireland/Australia?

Contact & Next Steps

Product Lead: [Name] - TrueCV Product Strategy Engineering Lead: [Name] - Phase 1 Technical Implementation

Next Meeting: [Date] - Review technical implementation plan + finalize go-to-market

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