Peter Foster
473bef96e9
- Updated Dockerfiles (Dockerfile, Dockerfile.migrations) - Updated docker-compose.yml (service names, container names, network) - Updated deploy scripts (README.md, server-setup.sh, deploy.sh) - Updated .gitignore - Updated all strategy documentation files - Updated app.js comment Note: Passwords containing "TrueCV" were intentionally preserved. 🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code) Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
237 lines
7.6 KiB
Markdown
237 lines
7.6 KiB
Markdown
# RealCV UK Market Opportunity - Executive Summary
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**Prepared for:** Product Leadership
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**Date:** January 2026
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**Priority:** High - Q1 2026 Implementation Opportunity
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---
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## The Opportunity
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**UK CV fraud costs employers £4.2B annually. Current verification takes 5-10 days. RealCV can do it in seconds.**
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### Market Problem
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- **1 in 5 UK candidates** falsify university degrees
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- **24% of screened CVs** fail verification checks
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- **40% of CV lies** involve qualification exaggeration
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- **Regulatory risk:** Companies face legal liability in healthcare, finance, legal sectors
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- **AI-accelerated fraud:** Deepfakes and synthetic identities emerging in 2026
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### Current Solution Gaps
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- Education verification requires contacting universities individually (10+ days per candidate)
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- Professional registration checks vary by profession with no central API
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- No integrated view connecting employment, education, and professional credentials
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- Manual processes don't scale for high-volume recruiters
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---
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## RealCV's Solution
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**Integrated CV verification platform leveraging UK-specific data sources:**
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| Feature | Coverage | Implementation | Impact |
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|---|---|---|---|
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| **HEDD Degree Verification** | UK degrees (140+ universities) | Q1 2026 (2-3 weeks) | Detects 90%+ of fake degrees |
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| **Healthcare Registers** (GMC/NMC) | Doctors, nurses, midwives | Q1 2026 (1 week) | Dominates healthcare niche |
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| **Timeline Fraud Detection** | Employment/education overlaps, gaps | Q1 2026 (1 week) | Catches 80%+ of timeline lies |
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| **Company Director Verification** | Self-employment claims (Companies House) | Q1 2026 (1-2 weeks) | Validates 15-20% of CVs |
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| **Professional Bodies** | ICAEW, SRA, IET, RIBA | Q2 2026 (4 weeks) | Expands to regulated professions |
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| **DBS Integration** | Criminal record checks | Q3 2026 (8 weeks) | Compliance + revenue stream |
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---
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## Competitive Advantage
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**RealCV is the ONLY CV verification tool that:**
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1. ✅ Integrates with HEDD (no competitors do)
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2. ✅ Targets healthcare recruiting niche (GMC/NMC)
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3. ✅ Verifies director claims (Companies House cross-check)
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4. ✅ Detects timeline fraud across education-employment boundary
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5. ✅ UK-first approach vs. global platforms
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**Nearest competitors** (Workable, Deel, Checkr) focus on broad background screening, not CV verification.
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---
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## Market Size
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### Addressable Market
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- **18,300 potential customers** (recruitment agencies + corporate HR)
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- **£2.8B UK pre-employment screening market**
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- **~£3.3M serviceable opportunity** for RealCV platform
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### Year 1 Revenue Target
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- **50-75 paying customers** at £49-199/month
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- **£30-240K revenue** Year 1 (conservative-growth scenario)
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- **£113K-226K annualized** by end of Year 1
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### Unit Economics
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- **CAC:** £150-300 (organic/partner-led)
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- **ARPU:** £60-120/month
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- **Payback:** 2-4 months
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- **Gross margin:** 75-80%
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---
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## Implementation Plan
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### Phase 1: MVP (Q1 2026 - 8 weeks)
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**Deliverables:**
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1. HEDD degree verification (real-time + manual review tracking)
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2. GMC/NMC healthcare register checks
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3. Enhanced timeline analysis (education/employment sequencing)
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4. Companies House director verification
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5. Public beta launch
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**Team:** 2 backend engineers, 1 QA, 1 PM, 1 marketing
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**Go-to-Market:** Beta with 3-5 recruitment agencies → Public launch → Press/analyst outreach
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**Success Metrics:**
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- 500+ signups in first month
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- 10%+ weekly active check rate
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- 85%+ feature satisfaction
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### Phase 2: Professional Bodies (Q2 2026)
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- ICAEW, SRA, IET, RIBA integration
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- Vertical market expansion
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- +40% user growth
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- +3x engagement
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### Phase 3: Compliance & Regulatory (Q3 2026)
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- HMRC payroll verification
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- DBS check integration (partnership)
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- Enterprise/platform tier
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- Recurring revenue + commission model
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---
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## Key Dependencies & Risks
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### Critical Path Items
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1. ✅ **HEDD API Access** - Start conversations NOW
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- Fallback: Web portal integration (still works)
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- Timeline: Approval expected 2-4 weeks
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2. ✅ **GMC/NMC Verification** - Request official API access
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- Fallback: Web scraper (more fragile)
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- Timeline: Scraper approach = 1 week dev
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3. ✅ **Companies House API** - Already have access
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- Enhancement to existing client = 1-2 weeks
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### Risks & Mitigations
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| Risk | Probability | Mitigation |
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| HEDD API delayed | Medium | Use web portal integration in parallel |
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| GMC/NMC scraper blocked | Low | Request official API; provide value-add |
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| Slow market adoption | Medium | Focus vertically (healthcare first) |
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| Regulatory gatekeeping | Medium | Partner with established vendors early |
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---
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## Financial Projections
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### Conservative Scenario (50 customers)
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- **MRR (end-of-year):** £9,455
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- **Annualized:** £113,460
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- **Costs:** £220K/year
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- **Result:** Approaching break-even
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### Growth Scenario (100 customers)
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- **MRR (end-of-year):** £18,910
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- **Annualized:** £226,920
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- **Gross margin:** 75% = £170K+ operational profit
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- **Result:** Profitable by month 9
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### Break-even Point
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- **Customers needed:** 24-30 at blended ARPU of £80/month
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- **Timeline:** Expected by month 6-7
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---
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## Why Now?
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1. **Market Conditions Perfect:**
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- UK CV fraud peaking (1 in 5 have fake degrees)
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- AI-generated fraud emerging (accelerating urgency)
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- HEDD now mature platform (140+ universities on network)
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- GMC/NMC registers fully digital (scraping viable)
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2. **No Competitive Threat:**
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- Workable/Deel don't focus on CV verification
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- Checkr/Verifile are manual processes
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- No integrated UK player in market
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3. **Technical Feasibility:**
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- HEDD integration straightforward
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- Scraper patterns proven (NHS, Companies House)
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- Timeline analysis already implemented
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---
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## Recommendation
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**PROCEED with Phase 1 implementation immediately.**
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### Next 30 Days
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- [ ] Secure HEDD API access (contact Prospects/Jisc)
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- [ ] Recruit 3-5 beta partner agencies
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- [ ] Begin HEDD client development (Day 1)
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- [ ] Finalize consent/compliance workflows
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### Success Metrics (Month 1)
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- HEDD integration code complete
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- 3+ beta partners onboarded
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- Timeline analysis enhanced
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- Public beta announcement scheduled
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### Decision Gate (Month 2)
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- Evaluate adoption rate (target: 100+ signups)
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- Assess feature-market fit with agencies
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- Validate revenue model (pricing feedback)
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- Proceed to Phase 2 if metrics green
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---
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## Appendix: Detailed Feature Priorities
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### Ranked by: Detection Value × Implementation Feasibility
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**TIER 1 (Start immediately):**
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1. HEDD Degree Verification - 9.5/10 impact, medium effort
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2. Timeline Fraud Detection - 7/10 impact, low effort (extending existing)
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3. GMC/NMC Healthcare Registers - 6.5/10 impact, low effort
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**TIER 2 (Weeks 3-5):**
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4. Companies House Director Verification - 7.5/10 impact, low effort (extending existing)
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**TIER 3 (Q2):**
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5. Professional Body Registers - 6.5-7/10 impact, medium effort
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6. GOV.UK Regulated Professions Enrichment - 5/10 impact, very low effort
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**TIER 4 (Q3+):**
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7. HMRC Payroll Verification - 9/10 impact, high effort (partnership required)
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8. DBS Integration - 8.5/10 impact, high effort (partnership + compliance)
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---
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## Questions for Stakeholders
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1. **Timeline:** Can we commit 2 engineers full-time for 8 weeks?
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2. **HEDD Access:** Will you sponsor approach to HEDD/Prospects for API partnership?
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3. **Beta Partners:** Do we have recruitment agency relationships for beta testing?
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4. **Revenue Model:** Approve tiered pricing (Free/Pro/Enterprise)?
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5. **International:** After UK success, expand to Ireland/Australia?
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---
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## Contact & Next Steps
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**Product Lead:** [Name] - RealCV Product Strategy
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**Engineering Lead:** [Name] - Phase 1 Technical Implementation
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**Next Meeting:** [Date] - Review technical implementation plan + finalize go-to-market
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