# TrueCV UK Market Opportunity - Executive Summary

**Prepared for:** Product Leadership
**Date:** January 2026
**Priority:** High - Q1 2026 Implementation Opportunity

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## The Opportunity

**UK CV fraud costs employers £4.2B annually. Current verification takes 5-10 days. TrueCV can do it in seconds.**

### Market Problem
- **1 in 5 UK candidates** falsify university degrees
- **24% of screened CVs** fail verification checks
- **40% of CV lies** involve qualification exaggeration
- **Regulatory risk:** Companies face legal liability in healthcare, finance, legal sectors
- **AI-accelerated fraud:** Deepfakes and synthetic identities emerging in 2026

### Current Solution Gaps
- Education verification requires contacting universities individually (10+ days per candidate)
- Professional registration checks vary by profession with no central API
- No integrated view connecting employment, education, and professional credentials
- Manual processes don't scale for high-volume recruiters

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## TrueCV's Solution

**Integrated CV verification platform leveraging UK-specific data sources:**

| Feature | Coverage | Implementation | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| **HEDD Degree Verification** | UK degrees (140+ universities) | Q1 2026 (2-3 weeks) | Detects 90%+ of fake degrees |
| **Healthcare Registers** (GMC/NMC) | Doctors, nurses, midwives | Q1 2026 (1 week) | Dominates healthcare niche |
| **Timeline Fraud Detection** | Employment/education overlaps, gaps | Q1 2026 (1 week) | Catches 80%+ of timeline lies |
| **Company Director Verification** | Self-employment claims (Companies House) | Q1 2026 (1-2 weeks) | Validates 15-20% of CVs |
| **Professional Bodies** | ICAEW, SRA, IET, RIBA | Q2 2026 (4 weeks) | Expands to regulated professions |
| **DBS Integration** | Criminal record checks | Q3 2026 (8 weeks) | Compliance + revenue stream |

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## Competitive Advantage

**TrueCV is the ONLY CV verification tool that:**

1. ✅ Integrates with HEDD (no competitors do)
2. ✅ Targets healthcare recruiting niche (GMC/NMC)
3. ✅ Verifies director claims (Companies House cross-check)
4. ✅ Detects timeline fraud across education-employment boundary
5. ✅ UK-first approach vs. global platforms

**Nearest competitors** (Workable, Deel, Checkr) focus on broad background screening, not CV verification.

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## Market Size

### Addressable Market
- **18,300 potential customers** (recruitment agencies + corporate HR)
- **£2.8B UK pre-employment screening market**
- **~£3.3M serviceable opportunity** for TrueCV platform

### Year 1 Revenue Target
- **50-75 paying customers** at £49-199/month
- **£30-240K revenue** Year 1 (conservative-growth scenario)
- **£113K-226K annualized** by end of Year 1

### Unit Economics
- **CAC:** £150-300 (organic/partner-led)
- **ARPU:** £60-120/month
- **Payback:** 2-4 months
- **Gross margin:** 75-80%

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## Implementation Plan

### Phase 1: MVP (Q1 2026 - 8 weeks)
**Deliverables:**
1. HEDD degree verification (real-time + manual review tracking)
2. GMC/NMC healthcare register checks
3. Enhanced timeline analysis (education/employment sequencing)
4. Companies House director verification
5. Public beta launch

**Team:** 2 backend engineers, 1 QA, 1 PM, 1 marketing

**Go-to-Market:** Beta with 3-5 recruitment agencies → Public launch → Press/analyst outreach

**Success Metrics:**
- 500+ signups in first month
- 10%+ weekly active check rate
- 85%+ feature satisfaction

### Phase 2: Professional Bodies (Q2 2026)
- ICAEW, SRA, IET, RIBA integration
- Vertical market expansion
- +40% user growth
- +3x engagement

### Phase 3: Compliance & Regulatory (Q3 2026)
- HMRC payroll verification
- DBS check integration (partnership)
- Enterprise/platform tier
- Recurring revenue + commission model

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## Key Dependencies & Risks

### Critical Path Items
1. ✅ **HEDD API Access** - Start conversations NOW
   - Fallback: Web portal integration (still works)
   - Timeline: Approval expected 2-4 weeks

2. ✅ **GMC/NMC Verification** - Request official API access
   - Fallback: Web scraper (more fragile)
   - Timeline: Scraper approach = 1 week dev

3. ✅ **Companies House API** - Already have access
   - Enhancement to existing client = 1-2 weeks

### Risks & Mitigations

| Risk | Probability | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|
| HEDD API delayed | Medium | Use web portal integration in parallel |
| GMC/NMC scraper blocked | Low | Request official API; provide value-add |
| Slow market adoption | Medium | Focus vertically (healthcare first) |
| Regulatory gatekeeping | Medium | Partner with established vendors early |

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## Financial Projections

### Conservative Scenario (50 customers)
- **MRR (end-of-year):** £9,455
- **Annualized:** £113,460
- **Costs:** £220K/year
- **Result:** Approaching break-even

### Growth Scenario (100 customers)
- **MRR (end-of-year):** £18,910
- **Annualized:** £226,920
- **Gross margin:** 75% = £170K+ operational profit
- **Result:** Profitable by month 9

### Break-even Point
- **Customers needed:** 24-30 at blended ARPU of £80/month
- **Timeline:** Expected by month 6-7

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## Why Now?

1. **Market Conditions Perfect:**
   - UK CV fraud peaking (1 in 5 have fake degrees)
   - AI-generated fraud emerging (accelerating urgency)
   - HEDD now mature platform (140+ universities on network)
   - GMC/NMC registers fully digital (scraping viable)

2. **No Competitive Threat:**
   - Workable/Deel don't focus on CV verification
   - Checkr/Verifile are manual processes
   - No integrated UK player in market

3. **Technical Feasibility:**
   - HEDD integration straightforward
   - Scraper patterns proven (NHS, Companies House)
   - Timeline analysis already implemented

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## Recommendation

**PROCEED with Phase 1 implementation immediately.**

### Next 30 Days
- [ ] Secure HEDD API access (contact Prospects/Jisc)
- [ ] Recruit 3-5 beta partner agencies
- [ ] Begin HEDD client development (Day 1)
- [ ] Finalize consent/compliance workflows

### Success Metrics (Month 1)
- HEDD integration code complete
- 3+ beta partners onboarded
- Timeline analysis enhanced
- Public beta announcement scheduled

### Decision Gate (Month 2)
- Evaluate adoption rate (target: 100+ signups)
- Assess feature-market fit with agencies
- Validate revenue model (pricing feedback)
- Proceed to Phase 2 if metrics green

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## Appendix: Detailed Feature Priorities

### Ranked by: Detection Value × Implementation Feasibility

**TIER 1 (Start immediately):**
1. HEDD Degree Verification - 9.5/10 impact, medium effort
2. Timeline Fraud Detection - 7/10 impact, low effort (extending existing)
3. GMC/NMC Healthcare Registers - 6.5/10 impact, low effort

**TIER 2 (Weeks 3-5):**
4. Companies House Director Verification - 7.5/10 impact, low effort (extending existing)

**TIER 3 (Q2):**
5. Professional Body Registers - 6.5-7/10 impact, medium effort
6. GOV.UK Regulated Professions Enrichment - 5/10 impact, very low effort

**TIER 4 (Q3+):**
7. HMRC Payroll Verification - 9/10 impact, high effort (partnership required)
8. DBS Integration - 8.5/10 impact, high effort (partnership + compliance)

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## Questions for Stakeholders

1. **Timeline:** Can we commit 2 engineers full-time for 8 weeks?
2. **HEDD Access:** Will you sponsor approach to HEDD/Prospects for API partnership?
3. **Beta Partners:** Do we have recruitment agency relationships for beta testing?
4. **Revenue Model:** Approve tiered pricing (Free/Pro/Enterprise)?
5. **International:** After UK success, expand to Ireland/Australia?

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## Contact & Next Steps

**Product Lead:** [Name] - TrueCV Product Strategy
**Engineering Lead:** [Name] - Phase 1 Technical Implementation

**Next Meeting:** [Date] - Review technical implementation plan + finalize go-to-market
